Statistics Canada reported that employment rose by 51,000 in February.
These numbers seem to gyrate tremendously from month to month in a way that has little to do with economic fundamentals: jumping by 40,000 in December, falling by 22,000 in January, and now rising significantly.
How much confidence should we have in them?
Continue reading “How much confidence should we have in the job numbers?”
Nate Silver is a pollster with a reputation, having correctly predicted the outcome of the 2008 American election in 49 of the 50 States. In 2012 he is giving the edge to President Obama over Governor Romney by a good margin.
There is a science to polling, and Mr. Silver knows it well enough to realize that it is not exact: all predictions come with a level of uncertainty.
But he figures that Mr. Obama has at least a 77% chance of winning the required 270 electoral college votes, even if at the same time he is predicting the President will only capture 52% of the popular vote.
The last time an incumbent sought re-election during the aftermath of a great recession was in 1936, when Franklin D. Roosevelt was challenged by the Republican Governor of Kansas, Alfred Landon.
At that time The Literary Digest magazine was the pollster to be reckoned with, having correctly predicted the winner in each presidential election since 1920, including Roosevelt’s 1932 victory.
Continue reading “Polling the pollsters suggests the odds favour Obama”
Economics for public policy 